Chinese refiners have suspended exports of oil products to destinations beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice, four people briefed on the matter told Reuters on Thursday, a move that tightened an already war-strained fuel market and pushed the crude benchmark back above 100 dollars a barrel.
New front-month December Brent crude futures traded at 101.20 dollars a barrel at 1647 GMT on Thursday, up 3.17 dollars, or 3.2 percent, from Wednesday's close. US West Texas Intermediate was up 1.58 dollars, or 1.8 percent, at 92 dollars after trading close to 93 earlier in the session. The November Brent contract expired on Wednesday, settling at 103.50 dollars a barrel and closing September with a gain of about 14 percent. Trading was volatile: prices slipped more than 1 percent early before rebounding, then pared gains after two EU diplomats told Reuters the bloc's energy taskforce would meet on Friday to discuss a potential release of diesel stockpiles.
The export halt lands on a physical market for refined products that is already stretched. Diesel and other fuels remain in short supply after damage to refinery infrastructure in the Gulf and Russia, and gasoline, jet and diesel shipments from the region are running at roughly half their pre-war levels, according to Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. Russia, a leading diesel exporter, has banned exports through October, leaving global diesel inventories tight. "The Chinese export ban suggests concerns about domestic product availability," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, adding that it remains to be seen whether the measure will support higher crude imports after recent drawdowns in Chinese crude and fuel stocks. Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said the Chinese restrictions will not have the same impact as the loss of Russian and Middle Eastern refined product exports, but are "another source of stress on global fuel markets when supply is severely constrained."
Security conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain the deeper driver. Shipping intelligence service Marisks said in a report late on Wednesday that three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were struck by unknown projectiles while transiting the strait on Tuesday, having sailed with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off to avoid detection. Kpler data showed the oil products tanker Al Ruwais made a ship-to-ship transfer off Sohar, Oman, in late September to discharge a diesel cargo; very large crude carrier Mersin Prosperity moved 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude off Sohar in mid-September; and the Aframax-sized Sinbad loaded refined products at Saudi Arabia's Jubail industrial port in early September. ADNOC Logistics and Services, which manages Al Ruwais and Mersin Prosperity, declined to comment, while Sinbad's manager, Anglo-Eastern Tanker Management, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
What the data does not establish is a decisive supply break. Chinese authorities have not publicly announced the suspension, which Reuters reported on the basis of people briefed on the decision, and it is not clear whether shipments resume after China's national holiday. Analysts point to signs of improvement elsewhere. Goldman Sachs estimated that Gulf oil exports, including "dark exports" by ships operating with their transponders turned off, had recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, in line with their 2025 average, as September exports doubled. Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings from Yanbu on Tuesday after restarting its East-West pipeline, and two sources said OPEC+ members are likely to keep November production targets unchanged when they meet on Sunday. Even so, the disruptions have lifted analysts' average forecast for Brent in 2026 to 89.05 dollars a barrel.
Sources
- Euronext (Reuters) - Oil prices rise as China suspends fuel exports, 1 October 2026: live.euronext.com
- CNBC Africa (Reuters) - Three oil tankers hit by projectiles in Hormuz strait, Marisks says, 1 October 2026: cnbcafrica.com
- OilPrice.com - Three Tankers Struck by Unknown Projectiles in Strait of Hormuz, 1 October 2026: oilprice.com
