OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day (bpd), from the 780,000 bpd projected in its July report, according to the cartel's Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) published on 12 August 2026.
Total world oil demand is now expected to average 105.74 million bpd in 2026, down from 105.94 million bpd in the previous estimate. Within the total, OPEC sees demand in OECD countries rising by about 40,000 bpd this year, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by around 600,000 bpd, as reported by Caliber.Az. For 2027, the organization raised its global demand growth forecast to about 2.2 million bpd, with growth of about 300,000 bpd in the OECD and 1.8 million bpd outside it.
The downgrade comes against the backdrop of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the resumption of US-Iran hostilities in late July and the deadlock in negotiations, factors that have kept oil prices elevated and triggered demand destruction, according to [OilPrice.com](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Fall-as-OPEC-and-IEA-Slash-2026-Demand-Outlooks.html).
The International Energy Agency (IEA), which published its own August report the same day, now expects oil demand to fall by 1.6 million bpd in 2026, a cut of 510,000 bpd from its July estimate, which had assumed that Hormuz flows would gradually recover.
In Asian trading on Thursday 13 August, Brent crude fell 0.5% to $88.56 a barrel, easing from Wednesday's intraday high of over $89, while the US benchmark WTI traded 0.60% lower at $82.77, according to [OilPrice.com](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Fall-as-OPEC-and-IEA-Slash-2026-Demand-Outlooks.html).
Prices were also weighed down by a surprise build in US crude inventories: the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 17.4 million barrels in the week ending 7 August, lifting commercial stockpiles to 424.4 million barrels, about 2% below the five-year seasonal average. Crude imports rose by 1.14 million bpd week on week, while exports fell by 627,000 bpd.
On the supply side, the seven OPEC+ countries that pledged voluntary production cuts produced 24.296 million bpd in July, up 1.424 million bpd from June, according to [Caliber.Az](https://caliber.az/en/post/opec-cuts-2026-global-oil-demand-growth-forecast) citing the report.
Sources
- OilPrice.com – "Oil Prices Fall as OPEC and IEA Slash 2026 Demand Outlooks": https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Fall-as-OPEC-and-IEA-Slash-2026-Demand-Outlooks.html
- Caliber.Az – "OPEC cuts 2026 global oil demand growth forecast": https://caliber.az/en/post/opec-cuts-2026-global-oil-demand-growth-forecast
