OPEC has cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) in its September Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), marking the fifth consecutive monthly downgrade. The figure represents a further reduction from the 580,000 bpd projected in August and brings the total downward revision since February to roughly one million bpd.
The cartel continues to see oil consumption rising in 2026 despite the economic fallout from the Iran war and elevated crude prices. That stance puts OPEC at widening odds with the International Energy Agency, which expects global oil demand to decline this year. The gap between the two forecasts has grown as OPEC maintains that the war-driven price shock, while significant, is not severe enough to push consumption into contraction.
For 2027, OPEC reversed course, raising its demand growth estimate to 2.36 million bpd from 2.16 million bpd in the August report. The upgrade reflects the group's expectation that economic activity will recover once the geopolitical tensions ease, supporting a rebound in fuel consumption. The more optimistic medium-term view contrasts with the continued trimming of this year's outlook, suggesting OPEC sees the current weakness as a temporary disruption rather than a structural shift.
A key feature of the September report is the widening divergence with the IEA. In its own September Oil Market Report, published on 11 September, the IEA estimated that global oil production fell by 1.6 million bpd month on month to 100.1 million bpd in August, reflecting both voluntary OPEC+ cuts and disrupted Iranian exports. While OPEC still projects demand growth of 380,000 bpd for the full year, the IEA's view that demand will shrink in 2026 underscores a fundamental disagreement over how much the Iran conflict and high prices are eroding consumption.
On the supply side, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production fell to 6.238 million bpd in August, its lowest level since 1990, according to secondary sources cited in the MOMR. The steep drawdown reflects Riyadh's compliance with OPEC+ voluntary cuts and the impact of Hormuz-related logistics on export volumes. The combination of constrained Saudi output and continued disruption to Iranian flows has kept the market tight even as demand forecasts weaken.
The fifth consecutive downgrade underscores a pattern of OPEC gradually acknowledging the drag that elevated prices and geopolitical risk are having on consumption, while still refusing to concede that the market is entering a period of outright demand decline. Markets will now watch whether a sixth cut materializes if the Iran war persists and crude prices remain above the thresholds that have been suppressing fuel use across major economies.
Sources
- Reuters via BloomingBit – "OPEC Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Growth Forecast Again, Says Iran War Won't Shrink Consumption": en.bloomingbit.io
- Argaam – "OPEC cuts global oil demand growth forecast for 5th consecutive time": argaam.com
- Economy Middle East – "OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 bpd in fifth downgrade as high prices weigh on consumption": economymiddleeast.com
- IEA – Oil Market Report September 2026: iea.org
