OPEC Plus has decided to keep its oil production policy unchanged for October, pausing a run of six consecutive monthly output increases that had been gradually unwinding voluntary supply cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd). The decision, announced after an online meeting of seven key producers on Sunday, reflects the group's need to review members' production capacity before setting output baselines for 2027 — and the reality that the Strait of Hormuz's closure has stripped OPEC Plus of much of its leverage over physical supply.
The seven participating countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — completed the reversal of the 2023 voluntary cuts in September with a final 188,000 bpd increase, the same increment applied in each of the previous three months. Earlier in the cycle, OPEC Plus had raised output by 206,000 bpd per month in April and May, while pausing increments during the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal demand softness.
The pause leaves roughly 2 million bpd of production cuts in place under a broader layer of restrictions covering most of the 21-country group, which remain in force through the end of 2026. More significantly, the Strait of Hormuz — which handled approximately 20 per cent of global oil and LNG supply before the conflict began on February 28 — has remained effectively closed. Daily vessel transits have collapsed from over 100 before the war to just a handful, according to The National News (https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/09/06/opec-keeps-oil-output-policy-unchanged-for-october-amid-iran-war-uncertainty/). Oil prices surged to $126 per barrel in late April following US and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks on Gulf neighbours, before retreating on intermittent peace talks. Brent settled at $96.28 on Friday, up 0.8 per cent, while WTI closed at $82.44, adding 0.2 per cent.
