Preliminary September inflation data released on 30 September 2026 came in above expectations in the euro area's three largest economies, driven overwhelmingly by the energy-price shock stemming from the Iran war. France's harmonised index rose to 3.4% year on year from 2.6% in August, above the 3.1% consensus, according to preliminary figures reported by investingLive. Italy's consumer price index climbed to 4.2% from 3.3%, its highest level since September 2023 and well above the 3.8% forecast, with the harmonised HICP reaching 4.1% from 3.2%. Germany's preliminary HICP accelerated to 3.3% from 2.9%, also above expectations. Spain had already reported a rise to 5.0% from 4.6% on 29 September. All four readings sit far above the European Central Bank's 2% target.
The jump is concentrated in energy, but it is not entirely confined to it. In France, energy prices accelerated to 21.2% year on year from 16.7%, reflecting higher petroleum-product and gas prices; services inflation also picked up, to 2.2% from 1.9%, and food inflation to 1.5% from 1.1%, investingLive reported. In Italy, regulated energy inflation surged to 25.9% from 18.6% and non-regulated energy to 22.2% from 17.0%; inflation excluding energy edged up to 2.0% from 1.7% and the core measure, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, to 1.7% from 1.5%. In Germany, energy costs rose 14.9% year on year, accelerating from 10.5% in August and 8.3% in July, while core inflation held at 2.4% — a sign, according to the Destatis breakdown reported by investingLive, that the September acceleration remains concentrated in energy rather than in underlying price pressures.
Why the figures matter for the ECB is straightforward. The central bank has already raised rates twice in 2026, and Reuters reported on 30 September that investors have sharply raised their rate-hike bets in recent weeks as natural gas, petrol and diesel prices have soared. Markets now expect another four hikes over the next 12 months on top of the two moves already delivered. The ECB's own projections had inflation rising from 3.3% in the third quarter to 3.6% in the fourth, but economists polled by Reuters put September's euro area print at 3.6%, up from 3.2% in August, and several now see the peak closer to 4%. Under the ECB's adverse scenario, inflation would run at 4.0% in both the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027; Reuters noted that current energy prices look more consistent with that scenario than with the baseline.
